Supply Shortage and Demand Recovery Coexist, Fluorite Powder Prices Are Expected to Rise [SMM Analysis]

SMM, March 2:

Currently, the price of 97% fluorite powder remains stable. According to SMM data, the price of 97% fluorite powder for aluminum fluoride enterprises ranges from 3,450-3,800 yuan/mt.

Supply side, the supply of fluorite powder remains relatively tight. Although domestic supply is gradually recovering, production in north China is still restricted due to climatic conditions. While inventories held by intermediaries are relatively sufficient, the operating rates of beneficiation plants are generally low, leading to a continuous decline in inventory. Most beneficiation plants are primarily focused on fulfilling contract orders.

Demand side, with the increasing acceptance capacity of downstream markets and the gradual resumption of the traditional refrigerant industry, the short-term consumption of fluorite powder is expected to increase. However, overall, the full recovery of the end-use market still requires time.

Brief comment: With the rising cost of hydrogen fluoride in March, the price trend is expected to remain strong. The fluorite powder market is driven by three factors: the cost transmission of hydrogen fluoride, downstream restocking, and the price increase of sulphuric acid, which are likely to support a stepwise price increase. However, attention should be paid to the order transaction situation in the north China market and the sustainability of high-priced orders in south China, as these factors will significantly impact the price trend of fluorite powder. Meanwhile, although the market generally holds an optimistic outlook for the future, further clarity in the transaction market will take time, and in the short term, more information is needed to determine the price direction.